Simulation de bourse

Tres bons resultats annonces ce matin.

Analyse de Morgan Stanley sur les news   
Pris sur Bloomberg, 6 pages d'analyses tres interessantes.
Je copie uniquement quelques passages :

April 23, 2008
Orpea --- Price Target €47
Embedded Value + Visible Growth = Overweight


Whilst 2007 results were broadly inline…
…the real estate mark-to-market is remarkable…
…and encouraging guidance suggests growth is on track, access to capital unimpaired.
Excellent visibility – see 20% potential upside from
here.

Price Target €47
50/50 average of Base Case intrinsic value €45.3 (Jun-08) and
Value/Capacity Regression, which suggests €49.1 (Dec-08).

The market appears to miss Orpea’s future capacity growth potential

Bull Case €62.4 --- 24.8x Bull Case 09e EPS
Increased capacity growth to 2,000 bed additions p.a. to 2011; higher
sustainable nursing home pricing CAGR (5.0% vs. 3.7%); lower wage
bill from 2009 following potential labour tax reform; realise €680m
market real estate value = 15% revenue, 27% EPS CAGR.

Base Case €45.3 --- 34.9x Base Case 09e EPS
Assumes existing pipeline becomes operational next 3-4 years +
steady 1,500 p.a. bed additions to 2011 → 10% operational
capacity CAGR 2007-11. Continued 93-94% occupancy and avg.
3.0% price CAGR, 2.5% avg. wage inflation yields 14.3% avg.
EBIT margin = 14% revenue, 19% EPS CAGR.

Bear Case €32.7 --- 25.1x Bear Case 09e EPS
Assumes no new capacity growth from here (but deployment of
current pipeline) and higher wage inflation = 13% revenue, 20%
earnings CAGR.